The UN World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Niño is likely to return in 2026. According to its forecast, there is an 80% chance of the phenomenon developing between June and August. It may continue from September to November, with a 90% probability.
El Niño affects temperatures and rainfall in different parts of the world. For Indonesia, it is usually linked to drier weather.
Bali is specifically mentioned by Indonesia’s meteorological agency, BMKG. Bali’s Climatology Station predicts that the island’s dry season in 2026 will be longer and drier than in 2025.
According to BMKG, a weak El Niño is expected from July to October. During this period, Bali may experience a prolonged or extreme drought. The most vulnerable areas are listed as northern Bali, including Buleleng from west to east, Nusa Penida, and the southern part of Klungkung Regency.
According to BMKG’s forecast, the dry season in Bali in 2026 is expected to cover the entire island by August. Its total duration could be around six months. By comparison, the dry season in 2025 was shorter, lasting around four months.
BMKG recommends that local authorities, the agricultural sector, businesses and residents plan ahead for water-related issues, including water resource management, water saving, irrigation water distribution, and the risk of drought and fires in dry areas.
Sources: wmo.int, bmkg.go.id
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